Risk of Ruin Calculator
Find out the real probability of blowing your account given your win rate, R:R and risk per trade. Powered by a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation.
Simulation assumes independent trades and a fixed % of equity risked per trade. Real markets cluster wins and losses; treat this as a baseline, not a guarantee.
Enter your edge
Your historical win rate (%) and average R:R per trade.
Set risk per trade
What % of your account you risk on each setup.
Pick the ruin threshold
How big a drawdown counts as 'ruined' (e.g. 50%).
Calculating one trade is easy. Tracking 500 with discipline is the edge.
Create Impacts logs the entry, stop, lots and outcome of every trade so you can see your real R-multiples, plan compliance and discipline score over hundreds of executions.
FAQ
What is risk of ruin?
The probability that a sequence of trades, with your given edge and risk per trade, will wipe out a defined percentage of your account before you grow it.
What does the simulation do?
It runs 10,000 Monte Carlo paths of N trades, sampling wins and losses at your win rate, and counts how many paths drop your account below the ruin threshold.
What's a safe risk per trade?
Most professional money management caps risk between 0.5% and 2% per trade. At 5%+ per trade, even profitable systems show meaningful risk of ruin.
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Educational tool only, not financial advice. Real results depend on spread, commissions, slippage and overnight swaps.